France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 20
28 February 2015Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Eddy Ben Arous
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Sofiane Guitoune
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Remi Lamerat
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Aaron Jarvis
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Mike Phillips
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.