Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 40
21 March 2015Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 5.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Adam Ashe
- 7Blair Cowan
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tommy Seymour
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Dougie Fife
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Rob Harley
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Greig Tonks
- 23Tim Visser+1.5
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Felix Jones
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.