Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 20
18 July 2015Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 41 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Stephen Moore(c)+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Will Skelton+6.1
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Rob Horne-3.3
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17Scott Sio+1.4
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19James Horwill+1.4
- 20David Pocock+0.9
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Drew Mitchell+1.7
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Marcell Coetzee-4.4
- 8Schalk Burger+6.0
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Heinke van der Merwe
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Oupa Mohoje
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Lwazi Mvovo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.