South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 27
25 July 2015Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 39 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Francois Louw+9.7
- 8Schalk Burger(c)+6.0
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cornal Hendricks
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 20Warren Whiteley
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Lionel Mapoe
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5James Broadhurst
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Lima Sopoaga
- 11Charles Piutau
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ben Franks-1.5
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Victor Vito+4.4
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Malakai Fekitoa
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.