England v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 33
3 October 2015Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Australia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Ben Morgan
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Rob Webber
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Nick Easter+2.6
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Sam Burgess
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore(c)+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Rob Simmons-1.5
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Rob Horne-3.3
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19Dean Mumm+2.1
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 423m | Carry metres | 283m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 169 | Passes | 134 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 120 | Tackles made | 124 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 85.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | 84.6% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Rucks won | 82 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 8 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 410m | Kick metres | 495m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.