South Africa v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 19
17 October 2015Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 42 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez(c)+10.4
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Tyler Morgan
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Gareth Anscombe+3.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23James Hook-12.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 61.0% | Territory | 39.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 543m | Carry metres | 294m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 7 | Offloads | 3 |
| 167 | Passes | 152 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 123 | Tackles made | 197 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 91.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 118 | Rucks won | 80 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Kicks from hand | 44 |
| 505m | Kick metres | 551m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.