South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 20
24 October 2015Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.4 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 43 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez(c)+10.4
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 19Victor Matfield-1.4
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | Possession | 57.0% |
| 33.0% | Territory | 67.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 149m | Carry metres | 387m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 3 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| — | Offloads | 3 |
| 79 | Passes | 161 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 131 | Tackles made | 83 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 97.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 76.5% | Lineout success | — |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 56 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Kicks from hand | 47 |
| 472m | Kick metres | 370m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.