Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 10
26 February 2016Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 20:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 3.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Gareth Anscombe+3.7
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Paul Jedrasiak
- 5Alexandre Flanquart
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Antoine Burban
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Djibril Camara
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 14Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Vincent Pelo
- 19Yoann Maestri
- 20Loann Goujon
- 21Sebastien Bezy
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Gaël Fickou+2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.