England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 21
12 March 2016Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley(c)
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Chris Robshaw
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Jack Clifford
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 23Elliot Daly-1.4
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Luke Charteris+2.1
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Rhys Webb+1.9
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Gareth Anscombe+3.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.