Ireland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
58 – 15
12 March 2016Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 9.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Simon Zebo-1.2
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 18Nathan White
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Rhys Ruddock
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Davide Giazzon
- 3Dario Chistolini
- 4George Biagi
- 5Marco Fuser
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 10Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15David Odiete
Replacements
- 16Oliviero Fabiani
- 17Matteo Zanusso
- 18Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 19Quintin Geldenhuys
- 20Braam Steyn+4.4
- 21Alberto Lucchese
- 22Kelly Haimona
- 23Luke McLean
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.