Italy v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 63
11 February 2017Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:25 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 9.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Marco Fuser
- 5Dries van Schalkwyk
- 6Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Carlo Canna+1.5
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Luke McLean
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Angelo Esposito
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Ornel Gega
- 17Sami Panico
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19George Biagi
- 20Braam Steyn+4.4
- 21Giorgio Bronzini
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Michele Campagnaro+0.8
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Niall Scannell
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Paddy Jackson
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 9 |
| 1 | Conversions | 9 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.