Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 21
11 February 2017Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 16:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 1.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Sam Warburton
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Scott Williams+3.8
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Samson Lee
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Sam Davies
- 23Jamie Roberts
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Maro Itoje-12.4
- 7Jack Clifford
- 8Nathan Hughes
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Jack Nowell+4.7
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Matt Mullan
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Tom Wood+0.3
- 20James Haskell+0.9
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Ben Te'o
- 23Jonny May-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.