Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 13
25 February 2017Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:25 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.7 mm
- Wind
- 41 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7John Hardie
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Hamish Watson-1.1
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Mark Bennett-0.3
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Sam Warburton
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Liam Williams+7.7
- 12Scott Williams+3.8
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Samson Lee
- 19Luke Charteris+2.1
- 20Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Sam Davies
- 23Jamie Roberts
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.