Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 9
18 March 2017Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 11.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 36 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 5Iain Henderson-1.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Kieran Marmion
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Jared Payne
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18John Ryan
- 19Devin Toner+4.4
- 20Dan Leavy
- 21Luke McGrath
- 22Paddy Jackson
- 23Andrew Conway
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Maro Itoje-12.4
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Tom Wood+0.3
- 20Nathan Hughes
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Ben Te'o
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.