New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 12
25 August 2018Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 12.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Squire
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Waisake Naholo
- 12Ngani Laumape
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Jordie Barrett+6.6
Replacements
- 16Nathan Harris
- 17Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Kurtley Beale+3.5
- 13Reece Hodge
- 14Jack Maddocks
- 15Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
Replacements
- 16Folau Fainga'a
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Rob Simmons-1.5
- 20Pete Samu-4.3
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Tom Banks
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.