England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 8
10 February 2019Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.7 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ben Moon
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Nathan Hughes
- 21Dan Robson
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Demba Bamba-4.4
- 4Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 5Felix Lambey
- 6Yacouba Camara
- 7Arthur Iturria
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 12Geoffrey Doumayrou
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Yoann Huget+2.1
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Dany Priso
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Paul Willemse-0.7
- 20Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 21Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 22Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.