England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 14
9 March 2019Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 8.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.1 mm
- Wind
- 39 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Brad Shields
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Ben Te'o
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Joe Cokanasiga
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ben Moon
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nathan Hughes
- 20Mark Wilson
- 21Dan Robson
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Henry Slade0.0
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Braam Steyn+4.4
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Angelo Esposito
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 17Cherif Traore
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19David Sisi+1.5
- 20Jake Polledri
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Ian McKinley
- 23Tommaso Castello
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 2 |
| 7 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.