New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 16
27 July 2019Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 12.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Matt Todd
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Vaea Fifita
- 20Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 21Aaron Smith-4.6
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23George Bridge
South Africa
- 1Steven Kitshoff
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Francois Louw+9.7
- 21Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.