Australia v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 29
29 September 2019Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Wales
- Kick-off
- 07:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 66 m
- Temperature
- 23.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tolu Latu
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Rory Arnold-6.0
- 6David Pocock+0.9
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Isi Naisarani
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Bernard Foley-0.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13James O'Connor-0.2
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 19Adam Coleman
- 20Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23Kurtley Beale+3.5
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Josh Navidi+6.8
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 63.0% | Territory | 37.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 569m | Carry metres | 351m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 31 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 11 | Offloads | 5 |
| 156 | Passes | 108 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Tackles made | 183 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 31 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 77.8% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 122 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 674m | Kick metres | 934m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.