England v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 16
19 October 2019Showa Denko Dome Oita, Oita · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 146 m
- Temperature
- 20.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 21Willi Heinz
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Jonathan Joseph-0.5
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tolu Latu
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Izack Rodda
- 5Rory Arnold-6.0
- 6David Pocock+0.9
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Isi Naisarani
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Christian Leali'ifano
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Jordan Petaia
- 14Reece Hodge
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Adam Coleman
- 20Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Matt To'omua-5.6
- 23James O'Connor-0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 36.0% | Possession | 64.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 275m | Carry metres | 578m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 14 |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 2 | Offloads | 8 |
| 90 | Passes | 165 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 193 | Tackles made | 86 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% | Lineout success | — |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Rucks won | 113 |
| 3 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 15 |
| 731m | Kick metres | 391m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.