Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 24
27 February 2021Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Josh Navidi+6.8
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhodri Jones
- 18Leon Brown
- 19Cory Hill+7.7
- 20James Botham+3.8
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Callum Sheedy
- 23Uilisi Halaholo
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Jonny Hill
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20George Martin+7.1
- 21Ben Earl+3.7
- 22Dan Robson
- 23Max Malins
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.