Wales v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 38
14 October 1999Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 6 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Peter Rogers
- 2Garin Jenkins
- 3Dai Young
- 4Gareth Llewellyn
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Martyn Williams+5.7
- 7Brett Sinkinson
- 8Scott Quinnell
- 9Rob Howley(c)
- 10Neil Jenkins
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Scott Gibbs
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 15Shane Howarth
Replacements
- 16Ben Evans
- 17Andrew Lewis
- 18Stephen Jones+0.2
- 19David Llewellyn
- 20Mike Voyle
- 21Geraint Lewis
- 22Jason Jones-Hughes
Samoa
- 1Brendan Reidy
- 2Trevor Leota
- 3Robbie Ale
- 4Lio Falaniko
- 5Lama Tone
- 6Junior Paramore
- 7Craig Glendinning
- 8Pat Lam(c)
- 9Steve So'oialo
- 10Stephen Bachop
- 11Inga Tuigamala
- 12George Leaupepe
- 13To'o Vaega
- 14Brian Lima
- 15Silao Leaegailesolo
Replacements
- 16Terry Fanolua
- 17Earl Va'a
- 18Semo Sititi
- 19Sene Ta'ala
- 20Onehunga Matauiau Esau
- 21Mike Mika
- 22John Clarke
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.