Wales v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 10
12 October 2003Marvel Stadium, Melbourne · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Canada
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 21 m
- Temperature
- 10.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Gareth Llewellyn
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Sonny Parker
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Adam Jones-6.2
- 18Robert Sidoli
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Mark Taylor+1.1
- 22Rhys Williams
Canada
- 1Rod Snow
- 2Mark Lawson
- 3Jon Thiel
- 4Colin Yukes
- 5Mike James
- 6Al Charron(c)
- 7Adam van Staveren
- 8Josh Jackson
- 9Morgan Williams
- 10Bobby Ross
- 11Dave Lougheed
- 12Marco di Girolomo
- 13Nik Witkowski
- 14Winston Stanley
- 15James Pritchard
Replacements
- 16Aaron Abrams
- 17Kevin Tkachuk
- 18Garth Cooke
- 19Jamie Cudmore
- 20Ryan Banks
- 21Ed Fairhurst
- 22Ryan Smith
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 83.0% | Possession | 17.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 701m | Carry metres | 312m |
| 22 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 36 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 15 | Offloads | 4 |
| 146 | Passes | 82 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | Tackles made | 81 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 69.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 36 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 81.8% | Lineout success | 81.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 17 |
| 13 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Rucks won | 56 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 37 |
| 1102m | Kick metres | 1111m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 16 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 16 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.