Wales v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 20
19 October 2003GIO Stadium, Canberra · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 617 m
- Temperature
- 11.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.4 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Gareth Llewellyn
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 8Alix Popham+1.5
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Adam Jones-6.2
- 18Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 19Martyn Williams+5.7
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Shane Williams+3.6
- 22Garan Evans
Tonga
- 1Kisi Pulu
- 2Vili Ma'asi
- 3Hemani Lavaka
- 4Saia Latu
- 5Viliami Vaki
- 6Ipolito Fenukitau
- 7Stanley Afeaki
- 8Benhur Kivalu(c)
- 9Sililo Martens
- 10Pierre Hola
- 11Tevita Tu'ifua
- 12John Payne
- 13Suka Hufanga
- 14Sione Fonua
- 15Sila Va'enuku
Replacements
- 16Ephraim Taukafa
- 17Tonga Lea'aetoa
- 18Milton Ngauamo
- 19Nisifolo Naufahu
- 20David Palu
- 21Sateki Tuipulotu
- 22Gus Leger
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | Possession | 60.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 458m | Carry metres | 542m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 15 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 3 | Offloads | 8 |
| 106 | Passes | 71 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Tackles made | 64 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 84.6% | Lineout success | 81.8% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 10 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 893m | Kick metres | 699m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 18 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.