England v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 10
8 September 2007Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · neutral venue
What the model says about England v USA
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 44 m
- Temperature
- 15.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Mark Regan+1.8
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Tom Rees
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Shaun Perry
- 10Olly Barkley
- 11Jason Robinson+5.5
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Mark Cueto+0.8
Replacements
- 16George Chuter
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Martin Corry-6.2
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Peter Richards
- 21Andy Farrell
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
USA
- 1Mike MacDonald
- 2Owen Lentz
- 3Chris Osentowski
- 4Alec Parker
- 5Mike Mangan
- 6Louis Stanfill
- 7Todd Clever
- 8Henry Bloomfield
- 9Chad Erskine
- 10Mike Hercus(c)
- 11Takudzwa Ngwenya
- 12Vaha Esikia
- 13Paul Emerick
- 14Salesi Sika
- 15Chris Wyles
Replacements
- 16Blake Burdette
- 17Mate Moeakiola
- 18Hayden Mexted
- 19Inaki Basauri Flores
- 20Mike Petri
- 21Nese Malifa
- 22Albert Tuipulotu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 592m | Carry metres | 353m |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 14 | Offloads | 6 |
| 105 | Passes | 79 |
Defence
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 80 | Tackles made | 74 |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 72.2% | Lineout success | 70.6% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Rucks won | 66 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.