Wales v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 17
9 September 2007Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Canada
- Kick-off
- 12:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 17.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Alix Popham+1.5
- 9Dwayne Peel(c)-4.5
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Sonny Parker
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16T.Rhys Thomas
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Michael Owen+2.1
- 19Colin Charvis-5.3
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Gareth Thomas+5.9
Canada
- 1Rod Snow
- 2Pat Riordan
- 3Jon Thiel
- 4Luke Tait
- 5Mike James
- 6Jamie Cudmore
- 7Dave Biddle
- 8Sean-Michael Stephen
- 9Morgan Williams(c)
- 10Ander Monro
- 11James Pritchard
- 12Dave Spicer
- 13Craig Culpan
- 14DTH Van Der Merwe
- 15Mike Pyke
Replacements
- 16Aaron Carpenter
- 17Dan Pletch
- 18Mike Pletch
- 19Mike Burak
- 20Colin Yukes
- 21Ed Fairhurst
- 22Ryan Smith
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 40.0% | Territory | 60.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 710m | Carry metres | 421m |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 8 | Offloads | 4 |
| 129 | Passes | 59 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 143 | Tackles made | 88 |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 85.7% | Lineout success | 92.9% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Rucks won | 101 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 6 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.