Wales v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
72 – 18
20 September 2007Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Japan
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 16.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.5 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Chris Horsman
- 4Will James
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Alix Popham+1.5
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones(c)+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12James Hook-12.6
- 13Jamie Robinson
- 14Dafydd James-9.4
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Ian Evans+5.6
- 19Michael Owen+2.1
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Japan
- 1Tatsukichi Nishiura
- 2Yuji Matsubara
- 3Tomokazu Soma
- 4Hitoshi Ono
- 5Luke Thompson
- 6Yasunori Watanabe
- 7Hare Makiri
- 8Takuro Miuchi(c)
- 9Tomoki Yoshida
- 10Bryce Robins
- 11Hirotoki Onozawa
- 12Shotaro Onishi
- 13Yuta Imamura
- 14Kosuke Endo
- 15Christian Loamanu
Replacements
- 16Taku Inokuchi
- 17Ryo Yamamura
- 18Hajime Kiso
- 19Ryota Asano Inose
- 20Chul-Won Kim
- 21Koji Taira
- 22Tatsuya Kusumi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 61.0% | Territory | 39.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 760m | Carry metres | 354m |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 25 | Offloads | 5 |
| 147 | Passes | 81 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | Tackles made | 84 |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 12 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 95.2% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 60 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 2 |
| 7 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.