New Zealand v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 10
9 September 2011Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 11.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Victor Vito+4.4
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 14Richard Kahui
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Anthony Boric
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Colin Slade+2.9
- 22Cory Jane-1.3
Tonga
- 1Soane Tonga'uiha
- 2Aleki Lutui
- 3Taufa'ao Filise
- 4Kele Hehea
- 5Joe Tuineau
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Finau Maka(c)
- 8Viliami Ma'afu
- 9Taniela Moa
- 10Kurt Morath
- 11Siale Piutau
- 12Andrew Ma'ilei
- 13Suka Hufanga
- 14Viliami Iongi
- 15Vunga Lilo
Replacements
- 16Ephraim Taukafa
- 17Sona Taumalolo
- 18Kisi Pulu
- 19Sione Timani
- 20Samiu Vahafolau
- 21Samisoni Fisilau
- 22'Alipate Fatafehi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 640m | Carry metres | 252m |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 150 | Passes | 65 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 116 | Tackles made | 90 |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 69.2% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 42 | Scrums won | 38 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.