New Zealand v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
83 – 7
16 September 2011FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
What the model says about New Zealand v Japan
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 10.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.4 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu(c)+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Adam Thomson+2.1
- 8Victor Vito+4.4
- 9Andrew Ellis
- 10Colin Slade+2.9
- 11Richard Kahui
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Isaia Toeava+11.9
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Ali Williams+2.0
- 19Anthony Boric
- 20Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 21Piri Weepu-4.9
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Japan
- 1Naoki Kawamata
- 2Yusuke Aoki
- 3Nozomu Fujita
- 4Hitoshi Ono
- 5Toshizumi Kitagawa
- 6Itaru Taniguchi
- 7Michael Leitch
- 8Takashi Kikutani(c)
- 9Atsushi Hiwasa
- 10Murray Williams
- 11Hirotoki Onozawa
- 12Yuta Imamura
- 13Koji Taira
- 14Takehisa Usuzuki
- 15Taihei Ueda
Replacements
- 16Hiroki Yuhara
- 17Kensuke Hatakeyama
- 18Yuji Kitagawa
- 19Sione Vatuvei
- 20Tomoki Yoshida
- 21Shaun Webb
- 22Alisi Tupuailei
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 787m | Carry metres | 272m |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 156 | Passes | 111 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 81 | Tackles made | 84 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 31 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 83.3% | Lineout success | 77.8% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 40 | Scrums won | 35 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | Rucks won | 58 |
| 1 | Mauls won | — |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tries | 1 |
| 9 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.