Wales v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
81 – 7
26 September 2011Stadium Taranaki, New Plymouth · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 06:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 44 m
- Temperature
- 9.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Lloyd Burns
- 3Craig Mitchell
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Ryan Jones+7.9
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tavis Knoyle
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Aled Brew
- 12Scott Williams+3.8
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Ryan Bevington
- 18Luke Charteris+2.1
- 19Andy Powell
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 22George North+8.6
Namibia
- 1Johnny Redelinghuys
- 2Hugo Horn
- 3Jane du Toit
- 4Heinz Koll
- 5Nico Esterhuyse
- 6Tinus du Plessis
- 7Jacques Burger(c)
- 8Jacques Nieuwenhuis
- 9Eugene Jantjies
- 10Theuns Kotze
- 11Danie Dames
- 12Darryl De La Harpe
- 13Piet van Zyl
- 14Danie van Wyk
- 15Chrysander Botha
Replacements
- 16Bertus O'Callaghan
- 17Raoul Larson
- 18Wacca Kazombiaze
- 19Rohan Kitshoff
- 20Ryan de la Harpe
- 21TC Losper
- 22David Philander
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 74.0% | Possession | 26.0% |
| 75.0% | Territory | 25.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 1103m | Carry metres | 168m |
| 45 | Defenders beaten | 2 |
| 226 | Passes | 57 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Tackles made | 137 |
| 2 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 45 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 83.3% | Lineout success | 84.6% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 38 | Scrums won | 32 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Rucks won | 32 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | 1 |
| 9 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.