Wales v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 13
1 October 2015Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Tyler Morgan
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Matthew Morgan
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Aaron Jarvis
- 18Samson Lee
- 19Luke Charteris+2.1
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23James Hook-12.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 67.0% | Territory | 33.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 589m | Carry metres | 566m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 29 |
| 5 | Offloads | 15 |
| 145 | Passes | 165 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 136 | Tackles made | 134 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 29 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 17 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 396m | Kick metres | 385m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.