New Zealand v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 10
2 October 2015Principality Stadium, Cardiff · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 11.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Charlie Faumuina
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Waisake Naholo
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 18Owen Franks-0.8
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22TJ Perenara-8.3
- 23Malakai Fekitoa
Georgia
- 1Karlen Asieshvili
- 2Shalva Mamukashvili
- 3Levan Chilachava
- 4Giorgi Chkhaidze
- 5Levan Datunashvili
- 6Shalva Sutiashvili
- 7Mamuka Gorgodze(c)
- 8Lasha Lomidze
- 9Giorgi Begadze
- 10Lasha Malaghuradze
- 11Sandro Todua
- 12Tamaz Mchedlidze
- 13Davit Kacharava
- 14Giorgi Aptsiauri
- 15Beka Tsiklauri
Replacements
- 16Simon Maisuradze
- 17Mikheil Nariashvili
- 18Anton Peikrishvili
- 19Konstantine Mikautadze
- 20Viktor Kolelishvili
- 21Vasil Lobzhanidze
- 22Merab Sharikadze
- 23Murazi Giorgadze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 68.0% | Territory | 32.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 732m | Carry metres | 96m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 9 | Offloads | 4 |
| 209 | Passes | 49 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 64 | Tackles made | 117 |
| 94.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 4 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 14 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 92.9% | Lineout success | 64.7% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 73 | Rucks won | 37 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 310m | Kick metres | 419m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 17 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.