New Zealand v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
63 – 0
2 October 2019Showa Denko Dome Oita, Oita
What the model says about New Zealand v Canada
- Kick-off
- 10:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 146 m
- Temperature
- 24.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.1 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Atu Moli
- 2Liam Coltman
- 3Angus Ta'avao
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Matt Todd
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 19Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21Brad Weber
- 22Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 23Ben Smith-1.6
Canada
- 1Djustice Sears-Duru
- 2Eric Howard
- 3Cole Keith
- 4Evan Olmstead
- 5Conor Keys
- 6Lucas Rumball
- 7Matt Heaton
- 8Tyler Ardron(c)
- 9Gordon McRorie
- 10Peter Nelson
- 11DTH Van Der Merwe
- 12Ciaran Hearn
- 13Conor Trainor
- 14Jeff Hassler
- 15Pat Parfrey
Replacements
- 16Andrew Quattrin
- 17Hubert Buydens
- 18Jake Ilnicki
- 19Mike Sheppard
- 20Josh Larsen
- 21Phil Mack
- 22Taylor Paris
- 23Andrew Coe
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | Possession | 36.0% |
| 71.0% | Territory | 29.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 920m | Carry metres | 316m |
| 35 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 46 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 21 | Offloads | 3 |
| 247 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 86 | Tackles made | 161 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 46 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 93.3% | Lineout success | 50.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Rucks won | 62 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 540m | Kick metres | 412m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 18 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | — |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.