South Africa v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
64 – 15
30 September 2007Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v USA
- Kick-off
- 18:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 42 m
- Temperature
- 17.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 18.8 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Wikus van Heerden
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Schalk Burger+6.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Akona Ndungane
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 19Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 22JP Pietersen+0.8
USA
- 1Mike MacDonald
- 2Owen Lentz
- 3Chris Osentowski
- 4Alec Parker
- 5Mike Mangan
- 6Louis Stanfill
- 7Todd Clever
- 8Dan Payne
- 9Chad Erskine
- 10Mike Hercus(c)
- 11Salesi Sika
- 12Vaha Esikia
- 13Phillip Eloff
- 14Takudzwa Ngwenya
- 15Chris Wyles
Replacements
- 16Blake Burdette
- 17Mate Moeakiola
- 18Mark Aylor
- 19Henry Bloomfield
- 20Mike Petri
- 21Nese Malifa
- 22Thretton Palamo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 638m | Carry metres | 374m |
| 8 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 14 | Offloads | 6 |
| 120 | Passes | 61 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 73 | Tackles made | 78 |
| 5 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 66.7% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 9 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 57 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 8 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.