South Africa v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 5
30 September 2011North Harbour Stadium, Albany · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 13.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Patrick Lambie+6.5
Replacements
- 16John Smit+6.0
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 19Willem Alberts+10.1
- 20Francois Louw+9.7
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Jean de Villiers+0.5
Samoa
- 1Sakaria Taulafo
- 2Mo Schwalger(c)
- 3Census Johnston
- 4Dan Leo
- 5Kane Thompson
- 6Taiasina Tuifua
- 7Maurie Fa'asavalu
- 8George Stowers
- 9Kahn Fotuali'i
- 10Tusi Pisi
- 11Alesana Tuilagi
- 12Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu
- 13Seilala Mapusua
- 14David Lemi
- 15Paul Williams
Replacements
- 16Ole Avei
- 17Anthony Perenise
- 18Logovi'i Mulipola
- 19Joe Tekori
- 20Ofisa Treviranus
- 21Junior Poluleuligaga
- 22George Pisi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% | Possession | 63.0% |
| 37.0% | Territory | 63.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 278m | Carry metres | 608m |
| 11 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 104 | Passes | 216 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 160 | Tackles made | 66 |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 11 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 78.6% | Lineout success | 78.6% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 38 | Scrums won | 37 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | Rucks won | 117 |
| 10 | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 14 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.