90 pool fixtures · 5,000 simulations · knockout ties are on the overview, in the bracket

Round 1

Saracens
27-23average
Bath Rugby
65%

3% draw

32%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 4 to Saracens by 13 · median Saracens by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Sale Sharks
24 – 34played
Bristol Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Northampton Saints
31-20average
Exeter Chiefs
77%

3% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 20 · median Northampton Saints by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Gloucester Rugby
36-19average
Newcastle Falcons
86%

2% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Gloucester Rugby by 26 · median Gloucester Rugby by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 40-26.

Harlequins
27-24average
Leicester Tigers
52%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 6 to Harlequins by 10 · median Harlequins by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.

Round 2

Bath Rugby
30-22average
Sale Sharks
75%

2% draw

22%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 1 to Bath Rugby by 16 · median Bath Rugby by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.

Saracens
28-23average
Northampton Saints
60%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 4 to Saracens by 13 · median Saracens by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Bristol Rugby
35-20average
Newcastle Falcons
87%

2% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 24 · median Bristol Rugby by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 13 is 28-15 as readily as 39-26.

Leicester Tigers
28-23average
Exeter Chiefs
65%

2% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 3 to Leicester Tigers by 13 · median Leicester Tigers by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 32-28.

Gloucester Rugby
48 – 0played
Harlequins

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 3

Northampton Saints
71 – 48played
Bath Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Newcastle Falcons
23-31average
Sale Sharks
33%

3% draw

65%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 17 to Newcastle Falcons by 2 · median Sale Sharks by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 6 is 24-18 as readily as 35-29.

Leicester Tigers
38 – 40played
Saracens

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Bristol Rugby
30-22average
Harlequins
72%

3% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Bristol Rugby by 17 · median Bristol Rugby by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.

Exeter Chiefs
24 – 45played
Gloucester Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 4

Newcastle Falcons
21-33average
Bath Rugby
20%

2% draw

78%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 20 to Bath Rugby by 1 · median Bath Rugby by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 38-28.

Leicester Tigers
27-25average
Northampton Saints
51%

3% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 7 to Leicester Tigers by 10 · median Leicester Tigers by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.

Sale Sharks
28 – 24played
Harlequins

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Gloucester Rugby
26-25average
Saracens
55%

2% draw

43%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 6 to Gloucester Rugby by 10 · median Gloucester Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.

Bristol Rugby
27-23average
Exeter Chiefs
64%

2% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Round 5

Bath Rugby
27-23average
Leicester Tigers
61%

3% draw

36%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Bath Rugby by 12 · median Bath Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Newcastle Falcons
23-30average
Harlequins
33%

2% draw

65%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 17 to Newcastle Falcons by 3 · median Harlequins by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Northampton Saints
31-21average
Gloucester Rugby
75%

3% draw

22%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 19 · median Northampton Saints by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Sale Sharks
27-24average
Exeter Chiefs
54%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Sale Sharks by 11 · median Sale Sharks by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Saracens
30 – 7played
Bristol Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 6

Harlequins
17 – 33played
Bath Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Leicester Tigers
38 – 31played
Gloucester Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Exeter Chiefs
34 – 28played
Newcastle Falcons

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Bristol Rugby
41 – 26played
Northampton Saints

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Saracens
17 – 21played
Sale Sharks

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 7

Gloucester Rugby
27-24average
Bath Rugby
60%

2% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Gloucester Rugby by 12 · median Gloucester Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Exeter Chiefs
29-22average
Harlequins
71%

2% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 15 · median Exeter Chiefs by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Bristol Rugby
27-23average
Leicester Tigers
61%

2% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Saracens
36-19average
Newcastle Falcons
88%

3% draw

9%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 5 to Saracens by 27 · median Saracens by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 40-26.

Northampton Saints
32-20average
Sale Sharks
82%

2% draw

15%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 2 to Northampton Saints by 21 · median Northampton Saints by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 36-26.

Round 8

Bath Rugby
40 – 34played
Exeter Chiefs

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Gloucester Rugby
28-23average
Bristol Rugby
61%

3% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 4 to Gloucester Rugby by 13 · median Gloucester Rugby by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Harlequins
26-26average
Saracens
47%

2% draw

51%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 9 to Harlequins by 8 · median Saracens by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.

Leicester Tigers
30-22average
Sale Sharks
77%

2% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Leicester Tigers by 16 · median Leicester Tigers by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.

Northampton Saints
59 – 26played
Newcastle Falcons

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 9

Bath Rugby
28-23average
Bristol Rugby
60%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 5 to Bath Rugby by 13 · median Bath Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Exeter Chiefs
26-26average
Saracens
51%

2% draw

47%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 8 to Exeter Chiefs by 8 · median Exeter Chiefs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.

Sale Sharks
27-24average
Gloucester Rugby
50%

3% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 6 to Sale Sharks by 11 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Harlequins
25-27average
Northampton Saints
41%

3% draw

57%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 10 to Harlequins by 6 · median Northampton Saints by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Newcastle Falcons
19 – 24played
Leicester Tigers

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 10

Bath Rugby
26-25average
Saracens
54%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 7 to Bath Rugby by 10 · median Bath Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Bristol Rugby
29-23average
Sale Sharks
74%

2% draw

23%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Bristol Rugby by 15 · median Bristol Rugby by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Exeter Chiefs
26-26average
Northampton Saints
49%

3% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 7 to Exeter Chiefs by 8 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Newcastle Falcons
22-32average
Gloucester Rugby
25%

2% draw

72%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 19 to Newcastle Falcons by 1 · median Gloucester Rugby by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 37-29.

Leicester Tigers
31-21average
Harlequins
76%

2% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Leicester Tigers by 18 · median Leicester Tigers by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Round 11

Sale Sharks
26-25average
Bath Rugby
51%

2% draw

47%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 7 to Sale Sharks by 10 · median Sale Sharks by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Northampton Saints
29-21average
Saracens
68%

3% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 2 to Northampton Saints by 16 · median Northampton Saints by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Newcastle Falcons
22-33average
Bristol Rugby
21%

3% draw

77%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 20 to Bristol Rugby by 1 · median Bristol Rugby by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 9 is 26-17 as readily as 37-28.

Exeter Chiefs
27-24average
Leicester Tigers
61%

3% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Exeter Chiefs by 11 · median Exeter Chiefs by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Harlequins
25-26average
Gloucester Rugby
49%

3% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 8 to Harlequins by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Round 12

Bath Rugby
24-27average
Northampton Saints
45%

3% draw

52%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 10 to Bath Rugby by 7 · median Northampton Saints by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Sale Sharks
35-18average
Newcastle Falcons
88%

2% draw

10%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 4 to Sale Sharks by 26 · median Sale Sharks by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 39-25.

Saracens
28-21average
Leicester Tigers
70%

3% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Saracens by 15 · median Saracens by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Harlequins
27-24average
Bristol Rugby
57%

2% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 6 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Gloucester Rugby
27-23average
Exeter Chiefs
62%

2% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 4 to Gloucester Rugby by 13 · median Gloucester Rugby by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 32-28.

Round 13

Bath Rugby
35-20average
Newcastle Falcons
86%

2% draw

12%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 4 to Bath Rugby by 25 · median Bath Rugby by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 39-27.

Northampton Saints
31-21average
Leicester Tigers
74%

2% draw

24%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Northampton Saints by 19 · median Northampton Saints by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Harlequins
26-23average
Sale Sharks
62%

3% draw

36%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 5 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Saracens
29-22average
Gloucester Rugby
71%

2% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 1 to Saracens by 16 · median Saracens by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Exeter Chiefs
27-24average
Bristol Rugby
57%

2% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 11 · median Exeter Chiefs by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.

Round 14

Leicester Tigers
26-23average
Bath Rugby
62%

3% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Leicester Tigers by 11 · median Leicester Tigers by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Harlequins
35-20average
Newcastle Falcons
86%

2% draw

12%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 4 to Harlequins by 24 · median Harlequins by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 39-27.

Gloucester Rugby
27-24average
Northampton Saints
53%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 6 to Gloucester Rugby by 12 · median Gloucester Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Exeter Chiefs
29-23average
Sale Sharks
73%

2% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 14 · median Exeter Chiefs by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 35-29.

Bristol Rugby
25-25average
Saracens
52%

3% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 7 to Bristol Rugby by 8 · median Bristol Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Round 15

Bath Rugby
31-21average
Harlequins
75%

3% draw

22%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 1 to Bath Rugby by 18 · median Bath Rugby by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Gloucester Rugby
26-24average
Leicester Tigers
59%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Gloucester Rugby by 11 · median Gloucester Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Newcastle Falcons
22-33average
Exeter Chiefs
23%

3% draw

74%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 19 to a draw · median Exeter Chiefs by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 37-29.

Northampton Saints
31-21average
Bristol Rugby
75%

3% draw

23%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Northampton Saints by 19 · median Northampton Saints by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Sale Sharks
26-27average
Saracens
42%

3% draw

55%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 9 to Sale Sharks by 6 · median Saracens by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.

Round 16

Bath Rugby
27-23average
Gloucester Rugby
64%

3% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Bath Rugby by 12 · median Bath Rugby by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Harlequins
27-24average
Exeter Chiefs
57%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Leicester Tigers
27-23average
Bristol Rugby
62%

3% draw

36%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 4 to Leicester Tigers by 14 · median Leicester Tigers by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Newcastle Falcons
21-35average
Saracens
19%

3% draw

78%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 24 to Saracens by 1 · median Saracens by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 79 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 39-28.

Sale Sharks
25-29average
Northampton Saints
36%

2% draw

62%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 12 to Sale Sharks by 5 · median Northampton Saints by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Round 17

Exeter Chiefs
26-24average
Bath Rugby
58%

3% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 10 · median Exeter Chiefs by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.

Bristol Rugby
27-23average
Gloucester Rugby
63%

2% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Saracens
32-20average
Harlequins
80%

3% draw

18%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 1 to Saracens by 20 · median Saracens by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Sale Sharks
24-27average
Leicester Tigers
49%

3% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 11 to Sale Sharks by 6 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Newcastle Falcons
21-36average
Northampton Saints
15%

2% draw

83%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 24 to Northampton Saints by 3 · median Northampton Saints by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 11 is 28-17 as readily as 40-29.

Round 18

Bristol Rugby
26-24average
Bath Rugby
59%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Bristol Rugby by 11 · median Bristol Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Saracens
29-22average
Exeter Chiefs
69%

3% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 2 to Saracens by 15 · median Saracens by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Gloucester Rugby
30-21average
Sale Sharks
76%

2% draw

22%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 1 to Gloucester Rugby by 18 · median Gloucester Rugby by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Northampton Saints
32-21average
Harlequins
80%

3% draw

17%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 20 · median Northampton Saints by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Leicester Tigers
35-20average
Newcastle Falcons
86%

3% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 3 to Leicester Tigers by 24 · median Leicester Tigers by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 39-27.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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