90 pool fixtures · 5,000 simulations · knockout ties are on the overview, in the bracket
Round 1
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 4 to Saracens by 13 · median Saracens by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 20 · median Northampton Saints by 9
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Gloucester Rugby by 26 · median Gloucester Rugby by 14
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 40-26.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 6 to Harlequins by 10 · median Harlequins by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.
Round 2
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 1 to Bath Rugby by 16 · median Bath Rugby by 7
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 4 to Saracens by 13 · median Saracens by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 24 · median Bristol Rugby by 13
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 13 is 28-15 as readily as 39-26.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 3 to Leicester Tigers by 13 · median Leicester Tigers by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 32-28.
Round 3
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 17 to Newcastle Falcons by 2 · median Sale Sharks by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 6 is 24-18 as readily as 35-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Bristol Rugby by 17 · median Bristol Rugby by 7
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.
Round 4
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 20 to Bath Rugby by 1 · median Bath Rugby by 10
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 38-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 7 to Leicester Tigers by 10 · median Leicester Tigers by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 6 to Gloucester Rugby by 10 · median Gloucester Rugby by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.
Round 5
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Bath Rugby by 12 · median Bath Rugby by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 17 to Newcastle Falcons by 3 · median Harlequins by 5
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 19 · median Northampton Saints by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Sale Sharks by 11 · median Sale Sharks by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.
Round 6
Round 7
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Gloucester Rugby by 12 · median Gloucester Rugby by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 15 · median Exeter Chiefs by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 5 to Saracens by 27 · median Saracens by 14
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 40-26.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 2 to Northampton Saints by 21 · median Northampton Saints by 10
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 36-26.
Round 8
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 4 to Gloucester Rugby by 13 · median Gloucester Rugby by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 9 to Harlequins by 8 · median Saracens by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Leicester Tigers by 16 · median Leicester Tigers by 7
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.
Round 9
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 5 to Bath Rugby by 13 · median Bath Rugby by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 8 to Exeter Chiefs by 8 · median Exeter Chiefs by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 6 to Sale Sharks by 11 · median a draw
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 10 to Harlequins by 6 · median Northampton Saints by 2
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.
Round 10
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 7 to Bath Rugby by 10 · median Bath Rugby by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Bristol Rugby by 15 · median Bristol Rugby by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 7 to Exeter Chiefs by 8 · median a draw
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 19 to Newcastle Falcons by 1 · median Gloucester Rugby by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 37-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Leicester Tigers by 18 · median Leicester Tigers by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.
Round 11
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 7 to Sale Sharks by 10 · median Sale Sharks by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 2 to Northampton Saints by 16 · median Northampton Saints by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 20 to Bristol Rugby by 1 · median Bristol Rugby by 9
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 9 is 26-17 as readily as 37-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Exeter Chiefs by 11 · median Exeter Chiefs by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 8 to Harlequins by 7 · median a draw
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.
Round 12
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 10 to Bath Rugby by 7 · median Northampton Saints by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 4 to Sale Sharks by 26 · median Sale Sharks by 14
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 39-25.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Saracens by 15 · median Saracens by 5
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 6 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 2
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 4 to Gloucester Rugby by 13 · median Gloucester Rugby by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 32-28.
Round 13
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 4 to Bath Rugby by 25 · median Bath Rugby by 12
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 39-27.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Northampton Saints by 19 · median Northampton Saints by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 5 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 1 to Saracens by 16 · median Saracens by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 11 · median Exeter Chiefs by 2
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.
Round 14
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Leicester Tigers by 11 · median Leicester Tigers by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 4 to Harlequins by 24 · median Harlequins by 12
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 39-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 6 to Gloucester Rugby by 12 · median Gloucester Rugby by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 14 · median Exeter Chiefs by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 35-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 7 to Bristol Rugby by 8 · median Bristol Rugby by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.
Round 15
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 1 to Bath Rugby by 18 · median Bath Rugby by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Gloucester Rugby by 11 · median Gloucester Rugby by 2
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 19 to a draw · median Exeter Chiefs by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 37-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Northampton Saints by 19 · median Northampton Saints by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 9 to Sale Sharks by 6 · median Saracens by 1
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.
Round 16
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Bath Rugby by 12 · median Bath Rugby by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 2
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 4 to Leicester Tigers by 14 · median Leicester Tigers by 4
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 24 to Saracens by 1 · median Saracens by 11
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 79 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 39-28.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 12 to Sale Sharks by 5 · median Northampton Saints by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.
Round 17
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 10 · median Exeter Chiefs by 2
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 1 to Saracens by 20 · median Saracens by 9
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 11 to Sale Sharks by 6 · median a draw
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 24 to Northampton Saints by 3 · median Northampton Saints by 11
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 11 is 28-17 as readily as 40-29.
Round 18
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Bristol Rugby by 11 · median Bristol Rugby by 3
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 2 to Saracens by 15 · median Saracens by 6
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.
2% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 1 to Gloucester Rugby by 18 · median Gloucester Rugby by 8
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 20 · median Northampton Saints by 9
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.
3% draw
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.
Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 3 to Leicester Tigers by 24 · median Leicester Tigers by 12
These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 39-27.