90 pool fixtures · 5,000 simulations · knockout ties are on the overview, in the bracket

Round 1

Saracens
27-22average
Bath Rugby
59%

2% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 4 to Saracens by 14 · median Saracens by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Sale Sharks
28-22average
Bristol Rugby
63%

3% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 3 to Sale Sharks by 14 · median Sale Sharks by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Northampton Saints
28-21average
Exeter Chiefs
66%

2% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 2 to Northampton Saints by 15 · median Northampton Saints by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 5 is 21-16 as readily as 32-27.

Gloucester Rugby
34-19average
Newcastle Falcons
79%

3% draw

18%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 2 to Gloucester Rugby by 25 · median Gloucester Rugby by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 38-26.

Harlequins
24-26average
Leicester Tigers
48%

3% draw

50%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 10 to Harlequins by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 30-30.

Round 2

Bath Rugby
28-21average
Sale Sharks
71%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 1 to Bath Rugby by 15 · median Bath Rugby by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Saracens
27-22average
Northampton Saints
57%

3% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 5 to Saracens by 13 · median Saracens by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Bristol Rugby
34-19average
Newcastle Falcons
81%

2% draw

17%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 2 to Bristol Rugby by 24 · median Bristol Rugby by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Leicester Tigers
28-21average
Exeter Chiefs
60%

2% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 4 to Leicester Tigers by 15 · median Leicester Tigers by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Gloucester Rugby
24-26average
Harlequins
49%

2% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 10 to Gloucester Rugby by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 30-30.

Round 3

Northampton Saints
28-21average
Bath Rugby
65%

3% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 2 to Northampton Saints by 17 · median Northampton Saints by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 5 is 21-16 as readily as 32-27.

Newcastle Falcons
24-28average
Sale Sharks
35%

2% draw

62%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 12 to Newcastle Falcons by 5 · median Sale Sharks by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Leicester Tigers
27-23average
Saracens
63%

2% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 4 to Leicester Tigers by 12 · median Leicester Tigers by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Bristol Rugby
24-25average
Harlequins
48%

3% draw

50%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 8 to Bristol Rugby by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 30-30.

Exeter Chiefs
29-21average
Gloucester Rugby
72%

3% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 17 · median Exeter Chiefs by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 33-26.

Round 4

Newcastle Falcons
21-33average
Bath Rugby
24%

3% draw

74%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 20 to a draw · median Bath Rugby by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 36-28.

Leicester Tigers
26-23average
Northampton Saints
56%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 6 to Leicester Tigers by 11 · median Leicester Tigers by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Sale Sharks
26-23average
Harlequins
53%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 6 to Sale Sharks by 12 · median Sale Sharks by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 1 is 19-18 as readily as 30-29.

Gloucester Rugby
25-26average
Saracens
44%

3% draw

53%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 8 to Gloucester Rugby by 6 · median Saracens by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Bristol Rugby
24-25average
Exeter Chiefs
45%

2% draw

53%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 9 to Bristol Rugby by 7 · median Exeter Chiefs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Round 5

Bath Rugby
25-23average
Leicester Tigers
55%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 6 to Bath Rugby by 10 · median Bath Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Newcastle Falcons
24-30average
Harlequins
25%

2% draw

72%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 15 to Newcastle Falcons by 1 · median Harlequins by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 6 is 24-18 as readily as 35-29.

Northampton Saints
31-20average
Gloucester Rugby
78%

3% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 20 · median Northampton Saints by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 35-26.

Sale Sharks
27-24average
Exeter Chiefs
51%

3% draw

47%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Sale Sharks by 11 · median Sale Sharks by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.

Saracens
30-20average
Bristol Rugby
71%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 1 to Saracens by 20 · median Saracens by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 34-26.

Round 6

Harlequins
26-23average
Bath Rugby
52%

2% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 6 to Harlequins by 11 · median Harlequins by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Leicester Tigers
30-20average
Gloucester Rugby
76%

3% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 1 to Leicester Tigers by 19 · median Leicester Tigers by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Exeter Chiefs
35-18average
Newcastle Falcons
89%

2% draw

9%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 5 to Exeter Chiefs by 27 · median Exeter Chiefs by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 39-25.

Bristol Rugby
24-27average
Northampton Saints
36%

3% draw

62%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 11 to Bristol Rugby by 5 · median Northampton Saints by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Saracens
29-20average
Sale Sharks
73%

3% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Saracens by 18 · median Saracens by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Round 7

Gloucester Rugby
24-26average
Bath Rugby
41%

2% draw

57%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 9 to Gloucester Rugby by 6 · median Bath Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.

Exeter Chiefs
28-21average
Harlequins
69%

3% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 2 to Exeter Chiefs by 16 · median Exeter Chiefs by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Bristol Rugby
24-26average
Leicester Tigers
46%

2% draw

52%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 10 to Bristol Rugby by 7 · median Leicester Tigers by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Saracens
36-19average
Newcastle Falcons
89%

3% draw

9%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 5 to Saracens by 27 · median Saracens by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 40-26.

Northampton Saints
31-21average
Sale Sharks
76%

3% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 18 · median Northampton Saints by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Round 8

Bath Rugby
26-22average
Exeter Chiefs
56%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 5 to Bath Rugby by 13 · median Bath Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Gloucester Rugby
24-26average
Bristol Rugby
48%

3% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 9 to Gloucester Rugby by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 30-30.

Harlequins
26-24average
Saracens
49%

3% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 7 to Harlequins by 11 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 30-30.

Leicester Tigers
30-21average
Sale Sharks
72%

2% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 1 to Leicester Tigers by 18 · median Leicester Tigers by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Northampton Saints
36-19average
Newcastle Falcons
90%

2% draw

8%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 5 to Northampton Saints by 26 · median Northampton Saints by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 40-26.

Round 9

Bath Rugby
30-20average
Bristol Rugby
68%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 1 to Bath Rugby by 18 · median Bath Rugby by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Exeter Chiefs
26-23average
Saracens
61%

2% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 4 to Exeter Chiefs by 12 · median Exeter Chiefs by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Sale Sharks
27-22average
Gloucester Rugby
60%

2% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Sale Sharks by 14 · median Sale Sharks by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Harlequins
25-26average
Northampton Saints
46%

2% draw

52%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 9 to Harlequins by 7 · median Northampton Saints by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Newcastle Falcons
20-34average
Leicester Tigers
19%

2% draw

79%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 23 to Leicester Tigers by 1 · median Leicester Tigers by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 38-27.

Round 10

Bath Rugby
27-22average
Saracens
57%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 5 to Bath Rugby by 13 · median Bath Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Bristol Rugby
27-22average
Sale Sharks
55%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 5 to Bristol Rugby by 13 · median Bristol Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Exeter Chiefs
26-23average
Northampton Saints
53%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 11 · median Exeter Chiefs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 1 is 19-18 as readily as 30-29.

Newcastle Falcons
24-30average
Gloucester Rugby
34%

3% draw

64%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 15 to Newcastle Falcons by 3 · median Gloucester Rugby by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Leicester Tigers
27-22average
Harlequins
67%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 2 to Leicester Tigers by 14 · median Leicester Tigers by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Round 11

Sale Sharks
26-25average
Bath Rugby
49%

2% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 7 to Sale Sharks by 9 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Northampton Saints
28-21average
Saracens
63%

2% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 3 to Northampton Saints by 15 · median Northampton Saints by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Newcastle Falcons
24-29average
Bristol Rugby
32%

2% draw

66%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 13 to Newcastle Falcons by 3 · median Bristol Rugby by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 4 is 23-19 as readily as 34-30.

Exeter Chiefs
26-24average
Leicester Tigers
54%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 11 · median Exeter Chiefs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Harlequins
28-22average
Gloucester Rugby
67%

2% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 2 to Harlequins by 15 · median Harlequins by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Round 12

Bath Rugby
26-23average
Northampton Saints
55%

2% draw

43%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 6 to Bath Rugby by 11 · median Bath Rugby by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Sale Sharks
34-19average
Newcastle Falcons
82%

3% draw

15%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 3 to Sale Sharks by 24 · median Sale Sharks by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 37-25.

Saracens
25-23average
Leicester Tigers
52%

2% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 6 to Saracens by 10 · median Saracens by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Harlequins
29-20average
Bristol Rugby
68%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 1 to Harlequins by 18 · median Harlequins by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Gloucester Rugby
25-25average
Exeter Chiefs
48%

2% draw

50%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 8 to Gloucester Rugby by 8 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 30-30.

Round 13

Bath Rugby
35-18average
Newcastle Falcons
89%

2% draw

9%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Bath Rugby by 28 · median Bath Rugby by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 39-25.

Northampton Saints
26-24average
Leicester Tigers
59%

2% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 6 to Northampton Saints by 11 · median Northampton Saints by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Harlequins
28-21average
Sale Sharks
68%

2% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 2 to Harlequins by 15 · median Harlequins by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Saracens
30-21average
Gloucester Rugby
75%

3% draw

22%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 1 to Saracens by 18 · median Saracens by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Exeter Chiefs
29-20average
Bristol Rugby
71%

3% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 17 · median Exeter Chiefs by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 33-26.

Round 14

Leicester Tigers
27-21average
Bath Rugby
60%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 4 to Leicester Tigers by 15 · median Leicester Tigers by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Harlequins
35-19average
Newcastle Falcons
86%

2% draw

12%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 4 to Harlequins by 26 · median Harlequins by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 13 is 28-15 as readily as 39-26.

Gloucester Rugby
24-27average
Northampton Saints
35%

2% draw

63%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 11 to Gloucester Rugby by 4 · median Northampton Saints by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Exeter Chiefs
29-21average
Sale Sharks
75%

3% draw

22%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 1 to Exeter Chiefs by 16 · median Exeter Chiefs by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Bristol Rugby
24-27average
Saracens
38%

3% draw

59%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 9 to Bristol Rugby by 5 · median Saracens by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Round 15

Bath Rugby
27-22average
Harlequins
67%

3% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 3 to Bath Rugby by 14 · median Bath Rugby by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Gloucester Rugby
23-27average
Leicester Tigers
38%

3% draw

60%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 13 to Gloucester Rugby by 5 · median Leicester Tigers by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Newcastle Falcons
20-33average
Exeter Chiefs
21%

2% draw

77%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 22 to Exeter Chiefs by 1 · median Exeter Chiefs by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Northampton Saints
31-20average
Bristol Rugby
78%

3% draw

20%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 1 to Northampton Saints by 21 · median Northampton Saints by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Sale Sharks
24-26average
Saracens
46%

2% draw

52%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 9 to Sale Sharks by 7 · median Saracens by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Round 16

Bath Rugby
29-21average
Gloucester Rugby
72%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 1 to Bath Rugby by 18 · median Bath Rugby by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 33-26.

Harlequins
26-23average
Exeter Chiefs
51%

3% draw

47%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Harlequins by 12 · median Harlequins by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Leicester Tigers
31-19average
Bristol Rugby
73%

3% draw

24%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Leicester Tigers by 21 · median Leicester Tigers by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Newcastle Falcons
20-34average
Saracens
18%

3% draw

79%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 24 to Saracens by 2 · median Saracens by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 38-27.

Sale Sharks
25-27average
Northampton Saints
37%

2% draw

61%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 8 to Sale Sharks by 4 · median Northampton Saints by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Round 17

Exeter Chiefs
26-22average
Bath Rugby
60%

3% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 5 to Exeter Chiefs by 13 · median Exeter Chiefs by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 3 is 20-17 as readily as 31-28.

Bristol Rugby
28-22average
Gloucester Rugby
59%

2% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Bristol Rugby by 15 · median Bristol Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Saracens
29-21average
Harlequins
68%

2% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 1 to Saracens by 16 · median Saracens by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Sale Sharks
25-26average
Leicester Tigers
43%

2% draw

55%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 9 to Sale Sharks by 6 · median Leicester Tigers by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Newcastle Falcons
20-35average
Northampton Saints
18%

3% draw

80%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 24 to Northampton Saints by 2 · median Northampton Saints by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 38-27.

Round 18

Bristol Rugby
25-26average
Bath Rugby
48%

2% draw

50%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 9 to Bristol Rugby by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 30-30.

Saracens
27-22average
Exeter Chiefs
60%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 4 to Saracens by 15 · median Saracens by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Gloucester Rugby
26-23average
Sale Sharks
53%

2% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sale Sharks by 6 to Gloucester Rugby by 11 · median Gloucester Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Northampton Saints
29-21average
Harlequins
71%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 1 to Northampton Saints by 17 · median Northampton Saints by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Leicester Tigers
36-19average
Newcastle Falcons
88%

2% draw

10%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 5 to Leicester Tigers by 27 · median Leicester Tigers by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 40-26.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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