5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 15 actual results locked in
Each team's average across the simulations, rounded to whole matches and points so that every row adds up. Win % is the chance of finishing first. Learn more
 Northampton Saints | 35.8% | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | +126 | 13 | 61 |
 Saracens | 22.0% | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | +85 | 13 | 57 |
 Bath Rugby | 10.8% | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | +37 | 13 | 55 |
 Gloucester Rugby | 10.8% | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | +92 | 14 | 54 |
 Bristol Rugby | 8.2% | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | +29 | 11 | 53 |
 Leicester Tigers | 7.6% | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | +29 | 12 | 52 |
 Exeter Chiefs | 3.7% | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 13 | 47 |
 Sale Sharks | 1.1% | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -31 | 11 | 43 |
 Harlequins | 0.2% | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | -94 | 12 | 38 |
 Newcastle Falcons | 0.0% | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | -247 | 11 | 23 |
Position Distribution
Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton Saints | 37.4% | 22.5% | 14.7% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | - |
| Saracens | 21.7% | 19.9% | 17.4% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | - |
| Bath Rugby | 11.7% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | - |
| Gloucester Rugby | 12.1% | 14.3% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | - |
| Bristol Rugby | 8.1% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| Leicester Tigers | 6.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 12.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 20.2% | 19.3% | 11.0% | 0.4% |
| Sale Sharks | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 28.9% | 20.7% | 2.0% |
| Harlequins | - | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 23.6% | 49.8% | 6.4% |
| Newcastle Falcons | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 0.8% | 8.0% | 91.0% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Semi-finals
- Northampton Saints48% · 33%
- Saracens36% · 21%
- Bath Rugby27% · 12%
- Gloucester Rugby27% · 12%
- Bristol Rugby23% · 9%
4 more
- Leicester Tigers22% · 8%
- Exeter Chiefs11% · 4%
- Sale Sharks6% · 2%
- Harlequins1% · <1%
- Saracens37% · 21%
- Northampton Saints37% · 24%
- Gloucester Rugby31% · 13%
- Bath Rugby30% · 14%
- Bristol Rugby27% · 12%
4 more
- Leicester Tigers23% · 11%
- Exeter Chiefs10% · 4%
- Sale Sharks5% · 1%
- Harlequins<1% · <1%
Final
- Northampton Saints57% · 36%
- Saracens42% · 22%
- Bath Rugby26% · 11%
- Gloucester Rugby25% · 11%
- Bristol Rugby21% · 8%
4 more
- Leicester Tigers19% · 8%
- Exeter Chiefs8% · 4%
- Sale Sharks3% · 1%
- Harlequins<1% · <1%
All 90 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.