Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 59
18 March 2000Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 10.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Tino Paoletti
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Walter Cristofoletto
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Nicolas Zisti
- 13Luca Martin
- 14Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 15Corrado Pilat
Replacements
- 16Carlo Orlandi
- 17Massimo Cuttitta
- 18Matteo Mazzantini
- 19Aaron Persico
- 20Orazio Arancio
- 21Giacomo Preo
- 22Andrea Scanavacca
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Phil Greening
- 3Darren Garforth
- 4Garath Archer
- 5Simon Shaw-2.6
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson(c)
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Austin Healey
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Iain Balshaw+8.5
- 17Joe Worsley+4.0
- 18Alex King
- 19Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 20Neil McCarthy
- 21Martin Corry-6.2
- 22Andy Gomarsall+2.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.