England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
80 – 23
17 February 2001Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 3.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Dorian West
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Austin Healey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Jason Robinson+5.5
- 17Mark Regan+1.8
- 18Joe Worsley+4.0
- 19Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 20Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 21Martin Corry-6.2
- 22Mike Tindall+3.5
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Alessandro Moscardi(c)
- 3Andrea Muraro
- 4Wim Visser
- 5Andrea Gritti
- 6Carlo Caione
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Carlo Checchinato
- 9Juan Manuel Queirolo
- 10Nanni Raineri
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Walter Pozzebon
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Luca Martin
- 15Andrea Scanavacca
Replacements
- 16Giampiero de Carli
- 17Marco Rivaro
- 18David dal Maso
- 19Tino Paoletti
- 20Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 21Matteo Mazzantini
- 22Ramiro Pez+2.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.