England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
50 – 10
23 March 2002Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Lewis Moody+1.4
- 7Neil Back(c)
- 8Richard Hill
- 9Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Austin Healey
Replacements
- 16Martin Corry-6.2
- 17Joe Worsley+4.0
- 18Matt Dawson
- 19Tim Stimpson
- 20Dorian West
- 21Jason Leonard
- 22Iain Balshaw+8.5
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Chris Anthony
- 4Andy Moore
- 5Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 6Nathan Budgett
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Scott Quinnell(c)
- 9Rob Howley
- 10Iestyn Harris
- 11Craig Morgan
- 12Andy Marinos
- 13Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 14Dafydd James-9.4
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Rhys Williams
- 17Colin Charvis-5.3
- 18Gareth Llewellyn
- 19Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 20Barry Williams
- 21Spencer John
- 22Nicky Robinson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.