Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 22
8 March 2003Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 6.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.3 mm
- Wind
- 27 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Andrew Mower
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12Kevin Utterson
- 13James McLaren
- 14Chris Paterson+1.8
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Andy Craig
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Gareth Williams
- 3Ben Evans
- 4Robert Sidoli
- 5Steve Williams
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Martyn Williams(c)+5.7
- 8Gavin Thomas
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Gareth Llewellyn
- 19Colin Charvis-5.3
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Iestyn Harris
- 22Matthew Watkins
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.