England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 9
22 March 2003Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Jason Leonard
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Jason Robinson+5.5
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 18Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Paul Grayson+7.3
- 22Dan Luger-5.9
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Nathan Hines-2.0
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Andrew Mower
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12Andy Craig
- 13James McLaren
- 14Chris Paterson+1.8
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Stuart Grimes
- 19Ross Beattie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Kevin Utterson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.