Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 42
30 March 2003Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Gary Longwell
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Victor Costello-4.5
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Justin Bishop
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Justin Fitzpatrick-4.2
- 18Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 19Alan Quinlan
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Girvan Dempsey+0.1
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Jason Leonard
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Jason Robinson+5.5
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Dorian West
- 17Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 18Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 21Paul Grayson+7.3
- 22Dan Luger-5.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.