Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 35
21 February 2004Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 2.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Simon Taylor
- 8Cameron Mather
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Chris Paterson(c)+1.8
- 11Simon Webster+9.7
- 12Brendan Laney
- 13Tom Philip
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Ben Hinshelwood
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Ally Hogg
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Andrew Henderson-4.3
England
- 1Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Chris Jones
- 7Richard Hill
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Paul Grayson+7.3
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Jason Robinson+5.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Jason Leonard
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Alex Sanderson
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Olly Barkley
- 22Henry Paul
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.