Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 10
27 March 2004Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Gareth Llewellyn
- 5Michael Owen+2.1
- 6Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Iestyn Harris
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Gareth Thomas+5.9
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Ben Evans
- 18Robert Sidoli
- 19Alix Popham+1.5
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 6Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Andrea de Rossi(c)+3.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Roland de Marigny
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 13Andrea Masi-5.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Gonzalo Canale
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Roberto Mandelli
- 19Silvio Orlando
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 22Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.