New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 7
17 July 2004Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 8.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.5 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Simon Maling
- 6Jono Gibbes
- 7Marty Holah-0.8
- 8Xavier Rush
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Dan Carter+1.9
- 13Tana Umaga(c)-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18Jerry Collins
- 19Craig Newby
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Nick Evans
- 22Sam Tuitupou
Australia
- 1Bill Young
- 2Brendan Cannon
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Justin Harrison
- 5Nathan Sharpe(c)+6.6
- 6Radike Samo-1.7
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9Chris Whitaker
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Clyde Rathbone
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Matt Dunning+1.3
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19George Smith
- 20Matt Henjak
- 21Matt Burke
- 22Wendell Sailor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.