New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 21
24 July 2004Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Simon Maling
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Marty Holah-0.8
- 8Xavier Rush
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Dan Carter+1.9
- 13Tana Umaga(c)-18.3
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 18Ali Williams+2.0
- 19Craig Newby
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Nick Evans
- 22Sam Tuitupou
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Eddie Andrews
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7AJ Venter
- 8Jacques Cronje
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Jaco van der Westhuyzen+3.4
- 11Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Marius Joubert
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.