Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
11 – 9
5 February 2005Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.3 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Mefin Davies
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Hal Luscombe
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16Robin McBryde+4.3
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Ryan Jones+7.9
- 20Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Kevin Morgan+4.7
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Chris Jones
- 7Andy Hazell
- 8Joe Worsley+4.0
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11Josh Lewsey
- 12Jamie Noon-4.5
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Jason Robinson(c)+5.5
Replacements
- 16Andy Titterrell
- 17Phil Vickery+2.7
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19James Forrester
- 20Harry Ellis-3.1
- 21Olly Barkley
- 22Ben Cohen
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.