New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 27
27 August 2005Carisbrook, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 118 m
- Temperature
- 3.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Tana Umaga(c)-18.3
- 14Rico Gear
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Derren Witcombe
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18James Ryan
- 19Sione Lauaki
- 20Kevin Senio
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Doug Howlett-3.2
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 9Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12De Wet Barry+0.2
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.