Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 18
12 February 2006Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 7.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.5 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Matthew Watkins
- 13Hal Luscombe
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Adam Jones
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Nicky Robinson
- 22Lee Byrne+0.7
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Ben MacDougall
- 14Chris Paterson+1.8
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Craig Smith
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Gordon Ross+3.2
- 22Simon Webster+9.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.